By extending the use of wind and sun as energy sources a problem appears with the management of national energy capacity. As traditional sources of electricity (power plants, nuclear and hydroelectric power) are manageable, the produced electricity from wind power (VyaETs) and photovoltaic power (FVETS) is associated with a random factor. In the first case it is the wind in the second cloud, with their variable in time and space characteristics. For management of the national energy balance their prediction is needed and on this basis - an estimate of electricity produced by them.
All existing assessments of resource from wind and sun as energy sources for Bulgaria are inherently type of weather. They can be used to design the layout of renewable energy using solar and wind, but have no practical value in everyday planning of electricity from them.
Different countries use different stochastic models or combinations of prognostic and regression models for forecasting electricity generation from wind. All are related to the particular site, for which are derived the empirical relationships involved in them and the results of their transfer to other, even though such areas are not encouraging.
Bulgaria does not have made such studies and there is no technology for short-term, local forecast for wind and solar energy, which can be used in practice.
Three-day, hourly forecast of energy, produced by wind park power
